Covid-19 Research Gujaratis rejoice Corolla transition from Diwali will be sharply reduced, new cases will be negligible by Christmas
Based on the sophisticated techniques of epidemiology and statistics, S.P. Former VC of Uni. Dr. Conclusion presented by Harish Padhe
Corona cases in Gujarat will reach a peak of 1.75 lakh by mid-November, new cases will start declining at the fastest pace from the next day
If the transition to Navratri and Diwali increases, the case reduction period is likely to be postponed to significant days.
All over the world, including Gujarat, the only question on Sahu's mind right now is when this corona will go. The answer to this most complex question was given by the former Vice Chancellor of Sardar Patel University, Dr. Harish Padhe has given. Using the latest techniques of epidemiology and statistics, Dr. According to Padhe's research, after Diwali, Corona's influence in Gujarat will begin to wane and the number of new cases will be negligible by Christmas. Dr. Pao and his collaborator Dr. Shweta A Patel has reached this conclusion by analyzing the 7-day moving average based on the Corona epidemic data from June 1 to October 3. Dr. Paddy explained the details of these findings in an extensive conversation with DivyaBhaskar.
On November 15, corona cases in Gujarat will reach a peak of 1.75 lakh
The Corona epidemic has changed the world's sickle in the last eight months and the death toll has crossed one million. If we talk about India, there have been more than 1 lakh deaths in the country and 3500 deaths in Gujarat. Creating a chart based on government data on the Corona epidemic, Dr. Paa and Dr. According to Shweta's analysis, the number of corona cases in Gujarat has reached 1.45 lakh by October 3, which will reach a peak of 1.75 lakh on November 15 and will start declining from there. Coincidentally, November 15 is the year of Vikram Samvat. Thus, after Diwali, the number of corona cases in Gujarat will start declining, according to this analysis.
By Christmas, the number of new Corona cases will be close to zero
The chart presented here shows that the pattern from which the number of cases has increased in Gujarat shows an upper side curve at intervals of 60 days. The pink lines show the speed in Gujarat and the days in which cases of corona have increased in Gujarat. In this context, the number of Koro cases in Gujarat will cross 1.60 lakh in the days around October 22, which is indicated by a blue dotted line. At this pace, the number of cases in Gujarat will see a significant decline from November 15 and by Christmas, the number of new cases will be unusually low and may be zero. This is a scientifically based assessment based on actual data from the last 4 months. The chart here shows the R2 value 0.999 which is said to be very good and very close to reality i.e. 1.0, said Dr. Paddy said in a conversation with DivyaBhaskar.
Nobel laureate Dr. According to Levitt's theory, death from Kovid after Diwali is negligible
The second chart is prepared with a different approach taking into account mortality. This equation was created by Dr. Stanford University, a Nobel laureate and an accurate estimator of mortality in Spain and Italy. Based on Michael Levitt's theory. This equation, known as the Levitt's equation, is based on the mortality rate up to today / yesterday. Accordingly if no new deaths occur today the ratio remains 1, which is our goal. Calculating according to this equation, it is clear that the magic number of 1 for Gujarat will be received from the beginning of the first week of November and new deaths in Gujarat due to Kovid-19 will be negligible from the days after Diwali. The straight line with red dots in this chart shows the expected surface of death and the blue curved-missed line shows the actual mortality. Kovid's mortality will be zero when the number of the blue line decreases and meets the line with red dots. This chart shows R2 value 0.867 which can be said to be good.
If we save Navratri-Diwali, the new year will bring good news for Gujarat
Dr. "Overall, the next month and a half is crucial for Gujarat in terms of corona," Padhe said. If no new transition erupts during the Navratri and Diwali festivals, the new year after Diwali will be very good news for Gujaratis. The Corona epidemic will not disappear, but the Covid-19 outbreak will slow down to the point where we can take significant steps to stabilize the economy. However, all this is based on how much more awareness the people of Gujarat have to prevent the spread of the Koro and to avoid mass gatherings.
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